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The Santa Hypothesis: Experimental Design

22 December, 2007 (22:09) | Research, Science! | By: Arlen

Over at the Science Creative Quarterly, Paul Clarkson wrote about an investigation into the existence of Santa Claus from when he was a kid.

First up, we have the consultation of authorities (His Parents):

My parents (beneficiaries of a liberal arts education and a liberal dosing of 1960’s psychotropic compounds) reassured their young child by explaining that Santa, like all beliefs, was a social construction and as such was true to all who believed in him. When I asked how I would prove that, Mum told me that all truth was relative and that the concept of proof was no more than a projection of hegemony by the dominant culture. Which I thought was a load of old bollocks.

Next is the literature review:

My little red bookshelf contained several volumes referring to Santa Claus. Most were personal accounts [2], and as such counted as no more than Level V evidence (expert opinion). Other styled themselves as authorities [3,4], but lacked references to definitive investigations.

Without a clear conclustion from previous work, he proceeded into the expermental portion of the investigation:

I decided to adjust my behaviour, the independent variable A, and observe the number of presents, the dependent variable B. If he did exist, then B would vary with A, but if my parents were bringing the loot then A should not cause B to vary, as I was an overindulged and spoilt child.

Sounds pretty good on the surface. However, as Paul points out, there were some problems with the data:

The next morning I awoke with eager anticipation of my results. I got pretty much the same presents as usual. I then realised with horror that I had no reference standard! What if I was going to get more and had been reduced? How would I know? My brother and sister served as case-controls, but this was wholly unsatisfactory. Was a Barbie doll worth one or two toy cars? Had they been naughty or nice, thus confounding the results?

His conclusions and future work:

I am sorry to report that despite having now reached adulthood, I have still been unable to establish a satisfactory experimental design for this problem. The levels of evidence in this field continue to be amongst the poorest in the literature, and anecdotal evidence abounds. However, there will be a bear-trap at the bottom of my chimney again this year. While Popper may maintain that it is impossible to prove that something does not exist, the truth is that I’ve only got to catch the bastard once to get my answer.

I must say, it is about time somebody started using a more systematic method for answering this question. There have been way too many theories presented without evidence! It has gone on long enough, the time to answer the question “Does Santa Claus Exist?” is now. Surely there is a journal somewhere that deals with this realm of research, if not maybe it is time to start one.

Edit: I just remembered, I have recent photographic evidence of Santa’s existence!


Santa Claus

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